Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultŞahdağ to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceŞahdağ or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Şahdağ vs MOIK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
MOIK travel to face Şahdağ on Thursday 12 March in the Birinci Dasta – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Şahdağ are 2nd, among the top four, on 15 points after 6 matches; MOIK are 3rd (among the top four) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Şahdağ, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Safa Baku, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
MOIK, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Difai Ağsu, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Şahdağ 2.2 xG, MOIK 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Şahdağ 62%, draw 21%, MOIK 18%.
Lower-risk option: Şahdağ or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Şahdağ to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Şahdağ or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Şahdağ 2–0 MOIK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Şahdağ62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
MOIK18%fair 5.71 · @3.60
3.12Expected goals
2.23Şahdağ xG
0.89MOIK xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 2.2 – 0.9 MOIK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şahdağ to win✗
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Şahdağ or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.75
Draw no bet
Şahdağ (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Şahdağ -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Şahdağ to score first✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Şahdağ ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şahdağ / FT Şahdağ✗
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Şahdağ – last 3
LWW
5 Mar
@ Safa Baku
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Zaqatala
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Şimal
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
MOIK – last 3
WLW
6 Mar
vs Difai Ağsu
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Mingəçevir
0–2
L
18 Feb
vs Səbail
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and MOIK.
Our pick is Şahdağ or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Şahdağ vs MOIK?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and MOIK 18%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs MOIK?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs MOIK?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 2–0 MOIK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs MOIK?
Şahdağ vs MOIK (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Difai Ağsu1