Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.47 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.47Odds
2
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 3.10 – our chance 41% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultŞahdağ to win ✓41% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.45
MOIK vs Şahdağ: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Wednesday 29 April: MOIK v Şahdağ in the Birinci Dasta. In the table, MOIK are 3rd, among the top four, on 14 points after 7 matches; Şahdağ are 2nd (among the top four) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
MOIK, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Safa Baku, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Şahdağ, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Zaqatala, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Şahdağ, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for MOIK.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended Şahdağ 1–1 MOIK.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give MOIK 1.2 xG, Şahdağ 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 51% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – MOIK 39%, draw 20%, Şahdağ 41%.
Price worth noting: Şahdağ to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.47). Most likely score in line with that pick: MOIK 1–1 Şahdağ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
MOIK39%fair 2.57 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.45
Şahdağ41%fair 2.45 · @3.10
2.94Expected goals
1.21MOIK xG
1.73Şahdağ xG
51%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: MOIK 1.2 – 1.7 Şahdağ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.47.
Who will win MOIK vs Şahdağ?
On our numbers MOIK have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Şahdağ 41%.
How many goals will there be in MOIK vs Şahdağ?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MOIK vs Şahdağ?
Our predicted score is MOIK 1–1 Şahdağ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is MOIK vs Şahdağ?
MOIK vs Şahdağ (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
