Value bet: Səbail to win @ 2.90 – our chance 42% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSəbail to win ✗42% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.96
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Mingəçevir vs Səbail: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Səbail travel to face Mingəçevir on Friday 22 May in the Birinci Dasta – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Mingəçevir are 9th, in the drop zone, on 4 points after 6 matches; Səbail are 5th (upper half) with 12.
Current form
Mingəçevir, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Şahdağ, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Səbail, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Zaqatala, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Səbail, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Mingəçevir.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended Mingəçevir 0–1 Səbail.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mingəçevir 1.1 xG, Səbail 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mingəçevir 33%, draw 25%, Səbail 42%.
Price worth noting: Səbail to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (53%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mingəçevir 1–1 Səbail. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mingəçevir33%fair 3.06 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.20
Səbail42%fair 2.36 · @2.90
2.66Expected goals
1.12Mingəçevir xG
1.54Səbail xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mingəçevir 1.1 – 1.5 Səbail expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
On our numbers Mingəçevir have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Səbail 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
Our predicted score is Mingəçevir 1–1 Səbail, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
Mingəçevir vs Səbail (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
