Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wellington Phoenix travel to face Melbourne City on Sunday 12 April in the A League, with AAMI Park the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT. In the table, Melbourne City are 4th, among the top four, on 7 points after 4 matches; Wellington Phoenix are 1st (leading the league) with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Melbourne City, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Central Coast Mariners, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Wellington Phoenix, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Melbourne Victory, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melbourne City 1.5 xG, Wellington Phoenix 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melbourne City 51%, draw 26%, Wellington Phoenix 23%.
Lower-risk option: Melbourne City or draw (77%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melbourne City 1–1 Wellington Phoenix. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melbourne City51%fair 1.98 · @1.63
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.95
Wellington Phoenix23%fair 4.29 · @4.90
2.69Expected goals
1.53Melbourne City xG
1.16Wellington Phoenix xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Melbourne City 1.5 – 1.2 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✓
51%
1.98
1.63
Double chance
Melbourne City or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Draw no bet
Melbourne City (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Wellington Phoenix +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.20
First team to score
Melbourne City to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✓
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Melbourne City – last 6
WWDWDL
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
4 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Perth Glory
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Sydney
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Buriram United
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Auckland
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WWWDLL
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Melbourne City have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Wellington Phoenix 23%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Melbourne City 1–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
