Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.55
KCB vs Mara Sugar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 March the FKF Premier League brings KCB against Mara Sugar at Ulinzi Sports Complex. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, KCB are 2nd, among the top four, on 13 points after 6 matches; Mara Sugar are 6th (upper half) with 9.
Current form
KCB, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Murang'a SEAL, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Mara Sugar, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with APS Bomet, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Mara Sugar, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for KCB.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give KCB 1.2 xG, Mara Sugar 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – KCB 43%, draw 29%, Mara Sugar 28%.
Lower-risk option: KCB or draw (72%) at 1.25.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was KCB or draw (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: KCB 1–0 Mara Sugar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
KCB43%fair 2.30 · @2.20
Draw29%fair 3.50 · @2.88
Mara Sugar28%fair 3.57 · @3.30
2.08Expected goals
1.22KCB xG
0.86Mara Sugar xG
41%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: KCB 1.2 – 0.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
KCB
Mara Sugar
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+18%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
-10%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.31
0.84
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
KCB to win✓
43%
2.30
2.20
Double chance
KCB or draw✓
72%
1.39
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
–
Draw no bet
KCB (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Mara Sugar +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
KCB to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT KCB / FT KCB✗
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.55
–
Recent results
KCB – last 5
DDWLD
15 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Nairobi United
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs AFC Leopards
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ GOR Mahia
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Mara Sugar – last 5
DDWDW
21 Mar
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
14 Mar
@ Bandari
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Sofapaka
3–1
W
26 Feb
@ Bidco United
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Ulinzi Stars
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KCB and Mara Sugar.
Our pick is KCB or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win KCB vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers KCB have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Mara Sugar 28%.
How many goals will there be in KCB vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KCB vs Mara Sugar?
Our predicted score is KCB 1–0 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is KCB vs Mara Sugar?
KCB vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Ulinzi Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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