Nairobi United 42%Draw 29%Shabana 29%Expected goals 1.22 – 0.87
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultNairobi United to win ✓42% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.64
Nairobi United vs Shabana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:15 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Nairobi United v Shabana in the FKF Premier League, played at Nyayo National Stadium. In the table, Nairobi United are 15th, lower half, on 5 points after 6 matches; Shabana are 5th (upper half) with 9.
Current form
Nairobi United, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mara Sugar, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Shabana, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Murang'a SEAL, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Shabana, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Nairobi United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nairobi United 1.2 xG, Shabana 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nairobi United 42%, draw 29%, Shabana 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nairobi United 1–0 Shabana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nairobi United42%fair 2.38 · @2.40
Draw29%fair 3.45 · @2.88
Shabana29%fair 3.44 · @2.88
2.09Expected goals
1.22Nairobi United xG
0.87Shabana xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nairobi United 1.2 – 0.9 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Nairobi United
Shabana
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+18%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-11%
Our expected goals here
1.24
0.76
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nairobi United to win✓
42%
2.38
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
–
Draw no bet
Nairobi United (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Shabana +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Nairobi United to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United✓
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.64
–
Recent results
Nairobi United – last 6
DDLLWD
1 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ APS Bomet
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Ulinzi Stars
1–2
L
18 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
14 Mar
@ Sofapaka
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs KCB
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Shabana – last 5
WLLWW
29 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
1–5
L
25 Feb
@ Mathare United
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Tusker
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nairobi United and Shabana.
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Shabana?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Shabana?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Shabana 29%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Shabana?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Shabana?
Our predicted score is Nairobi United 1–0 Shabana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Nairobi United vs Shabana?
Nairobi United vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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