Mara Sugar 45%Draw 26%Shabana 29%Expected goals 1.11 – 0.77
88%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultMara Sugar to win ✓45% · fair 2.21
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · fair 1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · fair 1.64
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.90
Mara Sugar vs Shabana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Shabana travel to face Mara Sugar on Wednesday 13 May in the FKF Premier League – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Mara Sugar are 6th, upper half, on 9 points after 6 matches; Shabana are 5th (upper half) with 9. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mara Sugar, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tusker, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Shabana, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Ulinzi Stars, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Mara Sugar, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Shabana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mara Sugar 1.1 xG, Shabana 0.8 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mara Sugar 45%, draw 26%, Shabana 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (88%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mara Sugar 1–0 Shabana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mara Sugar45%fair 2.21
Draw26%fair 3.90
Shabana29%fair 3.45
1.88Expected goals
1.11Mara Sugar xG
0.77Shabana xG
39%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mara Sugar 1.1 – 0.8 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mara Sugar
Shabana
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+6%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
-11%
Our expected goals here
1.11
0.72
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mara Sugar to win✓
45%
2.21
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
–
Draw no bet
Mara Sugar (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Shabana +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Mara Sugar to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mara Sugar / FT Mara Sugar✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.90
–
Recent results
Mara Sugar – last 6
WWWDLD
24 Apr
@ Tusker
1–0
W
18 Apr
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Posta Rangers FC
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Nairobi United
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Shabana – last 6
DLLWLL
9 May
vs Ulinzi Stars
0–0
D
2 May
vs Police
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Nairobi United
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mara Sugar and Shabana.
On our numbers Mara Sugar have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Shabana 29%.
How many goals will there be in Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
Our predicted score is Mara Sugar 1–0 Shabana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Mara Sugar vs Shabana?
Mara Sugar vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
