Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUSA to win ✓49% · @2.08
Double chanceUSA or draw ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.80
USA vs Paraguay: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
USA welcome Paraguay to SoFi Stadium for a World Cup fixture on Saturday 13 June (02:00 WAT).
Current form
USA, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Germany, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Paraguay, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Nicaragua, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paraguay, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for USA.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USA 1.5 xG, Paraguay 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USA 49%, draw 26%, Paraguay 25%.
Lower-risk option: USA or draw (75%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was USA or draw (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: USA 1–1 Paraguay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USA49%fair 2.05 · @2.08
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.15
Paraguay25%fair 4.00 · @3.80
2.56Expected goals
1.51USA xG
1.05Paraguay xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: USA 1.5 – 1.0 Paraguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA to win✓
49%
2.05
2.08
Double chance
USA or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
USA (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Paraguay +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
1.05
First team to score
USA to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.80
–
Recent results
USA – last 3
LWL
6 Jun
vs Germany
1–2
L
31 May
vs Senegal
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Portugal
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Paraguay – last 3
WLW
5 Jun
vs Nicaragua
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Morocco
1–2
L
27 Mar
@ Greece
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Paraguay.
Our pick is USA or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
On our numbers USA have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Paraguay 25%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Paraguay?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Paraguay?
Our predicted score is USA 1–1 Paraguay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is USA vs Paraguay?
USA vs Paraguay (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at SoFi Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Qatar1
Switzerland1
Brazil1
Morocco1