Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNetherlands to win ✗38% · @1.98
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.51
Netherlands vs Japan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Sunday 14 June: Netherlands v Japan in the World Cup, played at AT&T Stadium.
Current form
Netherlands, last 4: WLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Uzbekistan, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Netherlands 1.4 xG, Japan 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Netherlands 38%, draw 36%, Japan 26%.
Lower-risk option: Netherlands or draw (74%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Netherlands 1–1 Japan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Netherlands38%fair 2.62 · @1.98
Draw36%fair 2.82 · @3.50
Japan26%fair 3.79 · @3.75
2.69Expected goals
1.42Netherlands xG
1.27Japan xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Netherlands 1.4 – 1.3 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✗
38%
2.62
1.98
Double chance
Netherlands or draw✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.73
Draw no bet
Netherlands (draw no bet)
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Japan +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Netherlands to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.51
–
Recent results
Netherlands – last 4
WLDW
8 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
2–1
W
3 Jun
vs Algeria
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Ecuador
1–1
D
27 Mar
vs Norway
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Japan – last 2
WW
31 May
vs Iceland
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ England
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Netherlands and Japan.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Netherlands vs Japan?
On our numbers Netherlands have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Japan 26%.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Japan?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Japan?
Our predicted score is Netherlands 1–1 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Netherlands vs Japan?
Netherlands vs Japan (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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