Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 57% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUSA to win ✓59% · @1.60
Double chanceUSA or draw ✓81% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
USA vs Australia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
USA welcome Australia to Lumen Field for a World Cup fixture on Friday 19 June (20:00 WAT).
Current form
USA, last 4: WLWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Paraguay, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Australia, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Türkiye, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Australia, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for USA.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USA 2.0 xG, Australia 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USA 59%, draw 21%, Australia 19%.
Lower-risk option: USA or draw (81%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: USA 2–1 Australia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USA59%fair 1.68 · @1.60
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @4.10
Australia19%fair 5.14 · @5.00
3.14Expected goals
2.02USA xG
1.12Australia xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: USA 2.0 – 1.1 Australia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA to win✓
59%
1.68
1.60
Double chance
USA or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
USA (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Australia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.09
First team to score
USA to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
USA ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
USA – last 4
WLWL
13 Jun
vs Paraguay
4–1
W
6 Jun
vs Germany
1–2
L
31 May
vs Senegal
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Portugal
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Australia – last 5
WDLWW
14 Jun
vs Türkiye
2–0
W
6 Jun
@ Switzerland
1–1
D
31 May
@ Mexico
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Curaçao
5–1
W
27 Mar
vs Cameroon
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Australia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win USA vs Australia?
On our numbers USA have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Australia 19%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Australia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Australia?
Our predicted score is USA 2–1 Australia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is USA vs Australia?
USA vs Australia (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 19 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Lumen Field.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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