Philadelphia Union v New York City FC Prediction & Expected Goals (1 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPhiladelphia Union to win48% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.14

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Philadelphia Union welcome New York City FC to Subaru Park for a Major League Soccer fixture on Sunday 1 March (22:30 WAT). In the table, Philadelphia Union are 6th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; New York City FC are 11th (lower half) with 42.

Current form

Philadelphia Union, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 7–0 win over Defence Force, at home. The attack is flying at 4.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Philadelphia Union 1.4 xG, New York City FC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Philadelphia Union 48%, draw 25%, New York City FC 27%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Philadelphia Union48%fair 2.08 · @2.10

Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.25

New York City FC27%fair 3.74 · @3.50

2.34Expected goals

1.43Philadelphia Union xG

0.91New York City FC xG

56%Both score

44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–113%

2–010%

0–010%

2–19%

0–19%

From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.4 – 0.9 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Philadelphia Union to win	48%	2.08	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win	75%	1.34	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	56%	1.78	1.75
Draw no bet	Philadelphia Union (draw no bet)	64%	1.56	–
Asian handicap	New York City FC +1 (Asian handicap)	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.44	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	56%	1.80	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	76%	1.32	1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	88%	1.13	1.10
First team to score	Philadelphia Union to score first	55%	1.81	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union	29%	3.42	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	9%	11.14	–

Philadelphia Union – last 3

WLW

27 Feb	vs Defence Force	7–0	W
22 Feb	@ DC United	0–1	L
19 Feb	@ Defence Force	5–0	W

4.0Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

0%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

New York City FC – last 1

23 Feb

@ Los Angeles Galaxy

1–1

1.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77
2	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60
3	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58
4	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55
5	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50
7	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47
8	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46
9	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46
10	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42
11	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42
12	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33
14	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33
15	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Team

Pts

Nashville SC

+46

Inter Miami

+21

New England Revolution

+10

+15

+14

-15

-8

-14

-15

-17

-22

-32

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and New York City FC 27%.

How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Philadelphia Union v New York City FC: numbers & prediction