Value bet: Étoile Carouge to win @ 2.40 – our chance 44% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultÉtoile Carouge to win ✓44% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bellinzona welcome Étoile Carouge to Stadio Comunale Bellinzona for a Challenge League fixture on Friday 13 March (19:30 WAT).
Current form
Bellinzona, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Yverdon Sport, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Étoile Carouge, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to FC Aarau, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bellinzona 1.1 xG, Étoile Carouge 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bellinzona 31%, draw 25%, Étoile Carouge 44%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Étoile Carouge to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bellinzona 1–1 Étoile Carouge. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bellinzona31%fair 3.26 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.35
Étoile Carouge44%fair 2.26 · @2.40
2.67Expected goals
1.14Bellinzona xG
1.52Étoile Carouge xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bellinzona 1.1 – 1.5 Étoile Carouge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Étoile Carouge to win✓
44%
2.26
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.60
Draw no bet
Étoile Carouge (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Bellinzona +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Étoile Carouge to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Étoile Carouge / FT Étoile Carouge✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Bellinzona – last 3
LLL
27 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
0–4
L
20 Feb
@ Rapperswil
1–2
L
13 Feb
vs FC Vaduz
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Étoile Carouge – last 3
LDL
6 Mar
vs FC Aarau
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge.
What is the prediction for Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
On our numbers Bellinzona have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Étoile Carouge 44%.
How many goals will there be in Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Our predicted score is Bellinzona 1–1 Étoile Carouge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge?
Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Bellinzona.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Vaduz0