Value bet: Lanus to win @ 3.85 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente to win39% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win70% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 13.08
Independiente vs Lanus: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente welcome Lanus to Libertadores de America for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Saturday 14 February (00:00 WAT). In the table, Independiente are 13th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; Lanus are 9th (upper half) with 50. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente 1.1 xG, Lanus 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 36%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente 39%, draw 30%, Lanus 31%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Lanus to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente 1–1 Lanus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente39%fair 2.55 · @2.14
Draw30%fair 3.36 · @2.92
Lanus31%fair 3.23 · @3.85
2.21Expected goals
1.14Independiente xG
1.07Lanus xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.1 – 1.1 Lanus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win
39%
2.55
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win
70%
1.42
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.94
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Lanus +0.5 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
62%
1.60
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
64%
1.57
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.09
1.04
First team to score
Independiente to score first
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
13.08
–
Recent results
Independiente
No recent results on record.
Lanus
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Lanus.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Lanus?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Independiente vs Lanus?
On our numbers Independiente have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Lanus 31%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Lanus?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Lanus?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–1 Lanus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Lanus?
Independiente vs Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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