Gimnasia M. 32%Draw 29%Independiente 39%Expected goals 1.07 – 1.05
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente to win ✗39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.13
Gimnasia M. vs Independiente: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente travel to face Gimnasia M. on Wednesday 25 February in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with Víctor Legrotaglie the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Gimnasia M. are 17th, lower half, on 41 points after 32 matches; Independiente are 13th (upper half) with 47.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gimnasia M. 1.1 xG, Independiente 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gimnasia M. 32%, draw 29%, Independiente 39%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gimnasia M. 1–1 Independiente. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gimnasia M.32%fair 3.15 · @3.60
Draw29%fair 3.44 · @2.88
Independiente39%fair 2.55 · @2.25
2.12Expected goals
1.07Gimnasia M. xG
1.05Independiente xG
52%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–113%
0–012%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Gimnasia M. 1.1 – 1.1 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✗
39%
2.55
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente (draw no bet)
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Independiente +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
1.03
First team to score
Gimnasia M. to score first
44%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
20%
4.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.13
–
Recent results
Gimnasia M. – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs Gimnasia L.P.
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia M. and Independiente.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia M. vs Independiente?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Independiente?
On our numbers Gimnasia M. have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Independiente 39%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia M. vs Independiente?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia M. vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia M. 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia M. vs Independiente?
Gimnasia M. vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Víctor Legrotaglie.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Belgrano Cordoba3
Atletico Tucuman1
Barracas Central2
Tigre1
Gimnasia L.P.1
Rosario Central2