Velez Sarsfield 57%Draw 26%Newells Old Boys 17%Expected goals 1.50 – 0.80
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗57% · @1.62
Double chanceVelez Sarsfield or draw ✓83% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 4 May the Liga Profesional Argentina brings Velez Sarsfield against Newells Old Boys at Jose Amalfitani. Kick-off: 23:15 WAT. In the table, Velez Sarsfield are 6th, upper half, on 56 points after 32 matches; Newells Old Boys are 22nd (lower half) with 38. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Velez Sarsfield, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gimnasia Y Tiro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Newells Old Boys, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Union Santa Fe, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Velez Sarsfield, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Newells Old Boys.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Velez Sarsfield 1.5 xG, Newells Old Boys 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Velez Sarsfield 57%, draw 26%, Newells Old Boys 17%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newells Old Boys. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Velez Sarsfield57%fair 1.75 · @1.62
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.50
Newells Old Boys17%fair 6.03 · @6.00
2.30Expected goals
1.50Velez Sarsfield xG
0.80Newells Old Boys xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Velez Sarsfield 1.5 – 0.8 Newells Old Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Double chance
Velez Sarsfield or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Velez Sarsfield (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Newells Old Boys +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Velez Sarsfield to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
WDDWWL
1 May
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
2–0
W
27 Apr
vs Union Santa Fe
2–2
D
20 Apr
@ San Lorenzo
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Newells Old Boys – last 6
WWLLDL
18 Apr
@ Union Santa Fe
3–2
W
6 Apr
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–1
W
30 Mar
vs Acassuso
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Lanus
0–5
L
11 Mar
vs Platense
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velez Sarsfield and Newells Old Boys.
What is the prediction for Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
On our numbers Velez Sarsfield have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Newells Old Boys 17%.
How many goals will there be in Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Our predicted score is Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Newells Old Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys?
Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Jose Amalfitani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
