Independiente 43%Draw 26%Union Santa Fe 30%Expected goals 1.29 – 1.09
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89
Independiente vs Union Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente welcome Union Santa Fe to Libertadores de America for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Tuesday 10 March (23:45 WAT). In the table, Independiente are 13th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; Union Santa Fe are 16th (lower half) with 42.
Current form
Union Santa Fe, last 4: WWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Instituto Cordoba, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente 1.3 xG, Union Santa Fe 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente 43%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe 30%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente 1–1 Union Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente43%fair 2.32 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.77 · @3.10
Union Santa Fe30%fair 3.28 · @3.55
2.39Expected goals
1.29Independiente xG
1.09Union Santa Fe xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.3 – 1.1 Union Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✗
43%
2.32
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente (draw no bet)
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Union Santa Fe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.13
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
1.04
First team to score
Independiente to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.89
–
Recent results
Independiente – last 2
WD
1 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Gimnasia M.
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Union Santa Fe – last 4
WWWD
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Sarmiento Junin
3–1
W
23 Feb
vs Aldosivi
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs San Lorenzo
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Union Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
On our numbers Independiente have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Union Santa Fe 30%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–1 Union Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Independiente vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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