Independiente 52%Draw 26%Defensa Y Justicia 23%Expected goals 1.38 – 1.01
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente to win ✓52% · @1.68
Double chanceIndependiente or draw ✓77% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 April the Liga Profesional Argentina brings Independiente against Defensa Y Justicia at Libertadores de America. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente are 13th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; Defensa Y Justicia are 14th (upper half) with 47. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente, last 5: DWLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Boca Juniors, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Defensa Y Justicia, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Talleres Cordoba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente 1.4 xG, Defensa Y Justicia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente 52%, draw 26%, Defensa Y Justicia 23%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente or draw (77%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente52%fair 1.94 · @1.68
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.45
Defensa Y Justicia23%fair 4.38 · @5.50
2.39Expected goals
1.38Independiente xG
1.01Defensa Y Justicia xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.4 – 1.0 Defensa Y Justicia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✓
52%
1.94
1.68
Double chance
Independiente or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Defensa Y Justicia +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Independiente to score first
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Recent results
Independiente – last 6
DWLLDW
11 Apr
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
27 Mar
vs Atenas
4–2
W
22 Mar
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
1–2
L
10 Mar
vs Union Santa Fe
4–4
D
1 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Defensa Y Justicia – last 6
LLWWDD
13 Apr
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–2
L
1 Apr
vs Chaco For Ever
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ San Lorenzo
5–2
W
12 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Lanus
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Defensa Y Justicia.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
On our numbers Independiente have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensa Y Justicia 23%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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