Coritiba vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sao Paulo travel to face Coritiba on Wednesday 25 February in the Serie A, with Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Coritiba are 12th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Sao Paulo are 10th (upper half) with 44. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Coritiba 1.2 xG, Sao Paulo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Coritiba 33%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 38%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coritiba 1–1 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Coritiba33%fair 3.05 · @2.92
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @3.05
Sao Paulo38%fair 2.60 · @2.50
2.40Expected goals
1.17Coritiba xG
1.23Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.2 – 1.2 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
Attack vs Serie A average
-20%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+18%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.06
1.05
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
38%
2.60
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Coritiba +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.43
–
Recent results
Coritiba
No recent results on record.
Sao Paulo – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sao Paulo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
