Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓65% · @1.39
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓88% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 13 March the Serie A brings Sao Paulo against Chapecoense-sc at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Chapecoense-sc are 20th (in the drop zone) with 21. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Palmeiras, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 2.0 xG, Chapecoense-sc 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 65%, draw 22%, Chapecoense-sc 12%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo65%fair 1.53 · @1.39
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.30
Chapecoense-sc12%fair 8.02 · @8.50
2.81Expected goals
2.01Sao Paulo xG
0.80Chapecoense-sc xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 2.0 – 0.8 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+53%
Our expected goals here
1.82
0.77
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
65%
1.53
1.39
Double chance
Sao Paulo or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.13
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Sao Paulo ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 3
LWW
2 Mar
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
25 Feb
@ Coritiba
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chapecoense-sc – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chapecoense-sc 12%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
