Cruzeiro 57%Draw 24%Vasco DA Gama 19%Expected goals 2.00 – 1.10
81%
Betarazi pick
Cruzeiro or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultCruzeiro to win ✗57% · @1.80
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 16 March the Serie A brings Cruzeiro against Vasco DA Gama at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Cruzeiro are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Flamengo, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Palmeiras, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 2.0 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 57%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 19%.
Lower-risk option: Cruzeiro or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cruzeiro or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro57%fair 1.75 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.50
Vasco DA Gama19%fair 5.27 · @3.90
3.10Expected goals
2.00Cruzeiro xG
1.10Vasco DA Gama xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 2.0 – 1.1 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
+35%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+6%
Our expected goals here
2.18
1.23
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Cruzeiro (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Vasco DA Gama +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Cruzeiro to score first✓
62%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Cruzeiro – last 3
LDW
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 3
WLL
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 19%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
