Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.65 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBotafogo to win ✓41% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.02
Botafogo vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos travel to face Botafogo on Thursday 16 July in the Serie A, with Estádio Nilton Santos the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Botafogo are 11th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Santos are 9th (upper half) with 47.
Current form
Botafogo, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bahia, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Santos, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Vitoria, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Botafogo 1.4 xG, Santos 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Botafogo 41%, draw 26%, Santos 33%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Santos to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Botafogo 1–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Botafogo41%fair 2.42 · @1.97
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.45
Santos33%fair 3.03 · @3.65
2.80Expected goals
1.40Botafogo xG
1.40Santos xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–08%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.4 – 1.4 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Botafogo
Santos
Attack vs Serie A average
-23%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.09
1.35
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✓
41%
2.42
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.67
Draw no bet
Botafogo (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Botafogo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Santos to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
12.02
–
Recent results
Botafogo – last 6
LWWWLW
30 May
@ Bahia
1–2
L
27 May
@ Caracas FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
17 May
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
14 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
7 May
vs Racing Club
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
WWDLWD
31 May
vs Vitoria
3–1
W
27 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
3–0
W
20 May
vs San Lorenzo
2–2
D
17 May
vs Coritiba
0–3
L
13 May
@ Coritiba
2–0
W
6 May
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Santos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Botafogo vs Santos?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Santos 33%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Santos?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Santos?
Botafogo vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
