Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVitoria to win ✓38% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.89
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitoria welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio Manoel Barradas for a Serie A fixture on Thursday 16 July (23:30 WAT). In the table, Vitoria are 15th, lower half, on 38 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vitoria, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fortaleza EC, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Atletico-MG, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vitoria, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitoria 1.2 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitoria 38%, draw 26%, Vasco DA Gama 36%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitoria 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitoria38%fair 2.66 · @2.34
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.30
Vasco DA Gama36%fair 2.76 · @2.95
2.59Expected goals
1.23Vitoria xG
1.35Vasco DA Gama xG
60%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.2 – 1.4 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
-32%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+16%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.11
1.44
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria to win✓
38%
2.66
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Vitoria (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Vitoria +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Vasco DA Gama to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.89
–
Recent results
Vitoria – last 6
WWLWWL
6 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
3 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
31 May
@ Santos
1–3
L
28 May
@ ABC
4–3
W
21 May
vs ABC
6–2
W
17 May
@ RB Bragantino
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
LWLLDW
31 May
vs Atletico-MG
0–1
L
27 May
vs Barracas Central
3–0
W
25 May
vs RB Bragantino
0–3
L
20 May
@ Olimpia
1–3
L
13 May
vs Paysandu
2–2
D
11 May
vs Atletico Paranaense
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vasco DA Gama 36%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
