Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓65% · @1.25
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓85% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Toluca vs Club Tijuana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
04:05 WAT, Saturday 14 February: Toluca v Club Tijuana in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Club Tijuana are 9th (upper half) with 22.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.1 xG, Club Tijuana 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 65%, draw 20%, Club Tijuana 15%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toluca to win (65%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 Club Tijuana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca65%fair 1.54 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @5.50
Club Tijuana15%fair 6.59 · @12.00
3.15Expected goals
2.06Toluca xG
1.10Club Tijuana xG
58%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 1.1 Club Tijuana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Club Tijuana
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-10%
Our expected goals here
1.88
1.30
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
65%
1.54
1.25
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Club Tijuana +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.75
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Toluca
No recent results on record.
Club Tijuana
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Club Tijuana.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
On our numbers Toluca have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Club Tijuana 15%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Club Tijuana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Toluca vs Club Tijuana (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
