Value bet: Puebla to win @ 3.55 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗45% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44
Puebla vs Tigres UANL: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Puebla welcome Tigres UANL to Estadio Cuauhtemoc for a Liga MX fixture on Thursday 5 March (02:00 WAT). In the table, Puebla are 13th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Tigres UANL are 15th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Puebla, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Atletico San Luis, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Tigres UANL, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Club America, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Puebla 1.3 xG, Tigres UANL 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Puebla 30%, draw 25%, Tigres UANL 45%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Puebla to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Puebla 1–1 Tigres UANL. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Puebla30%fair 3.33 · @3.55
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.60
Tigres UANL45%fair 2.24 · @1.97
2.72Expected goals
1.28Puebla xG
1.44Tigres UANL xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Puebla 1.3 – 1.4 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Puebla
Tigres UANL
Attack vs Liga MX average
-19%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.27
1.20
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
45%
2.24
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Draw no bet
Tigres UANL (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Puebla +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Tigres UANL to score first✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.44
–
Recent results
Puebla – last 3
WLL
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Club America
0–4
L
14 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL – last 3
WLL
1 Mar
@ Club America
4–1
W
21 Feb
vs Pachuca
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Tigres UANL.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Puebla vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Puebla have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 45%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Puebla 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Tigres UANL?
Puebla vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
