Value bet: Mazatlán to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeon to win ✗41% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Mazatlán vs Leon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Saturday 7 March: Mazatlán v Leon in the Liga MX, played at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Current form
Mazatlán, last 4: LWDW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Atletico San Luis, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Leon, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Necaxa, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mazatlán 1.4 xG, Leon 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mazatlán 35%, draw 24%, Leon 41%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Mazatlán to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mazatlán 1–1 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mazatlán35%fair 2.86 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.45
Leon41%fair 2.45 · @2.18
2.93Expected goals
1.43Mazatlán xG
1.49Leon xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Mazatlán 1.4 – 1.5 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mazatlán
Leon
Attack vs Liga MX average
+3%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.61
1.56
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✗
41%
2.45
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.62
Draw no bet
Leon (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Mazatlán +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.14
First team to score
Leon to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.68
–
Recent results
Mazatlán – last 4
LWDW
4 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–4
L
28 Feb
vs Pachuca
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Club Tijuana
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Santos Laguna
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 3
WWL
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mazatlán and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mazatlán vs Leon?
On our numbers Mazatlán have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leon 41%.
How many goals will there be in Mazatlán vs Leon?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mazatlán vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Mazatlán 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Mazatlán vs Leon?
Mazatlán vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Necaxa0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1