Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 3.65 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗49% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Pachuca vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Monday 23 March: Pachuca v Toluca in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. In the table, Pachuca are 8th, upper half, on 22 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Pachuca, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico San Luis, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over San Diego, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pachuca 1.4 xG, Toluca 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 59% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pachuca 29%, draw 22%, Toluca 49%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Pachuca to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pachuca 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pachuca29%fair 3.39 · @3.65
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.70
Toluca49%fair 2.06 · @1.90
2.97Expected goals
1.39Pachuca xG
1.58Toluca xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Pachuca 1.4 – 1.6 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Pachuca
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+17%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.73
1.52
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
49%
2.06
1.90
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.62
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Pachuca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Pachuca – last 6
DWWLWW
15 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Puebla
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WDLWWW
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pachuca and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pachuca vs Toluca?
On our numbers Pachuca have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca 49%.
How many goals will there be in Pachuca vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pachuca vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Pachuca 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Pachuca vs Toluca?
Pachuca vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
