Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDerry City to win ✗59% · @1.62
Double chanceDerry City or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Derry City vs Dundalk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 13 February the Premier Division brings Derry City against Dundalk at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Derry City are 5th, upper half, on 48 points after 36 matches; Dundalk are 6th (lower half) with 45. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derry City 1.9 xG, Dundalk 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 52% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derry City 59%, draw 24%, Dundalk 18%.
Lower-risk option: Derry City or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derry City 1–1 Dundalk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derry City59%fair 1.70 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.60
Dundalk18%fair 5.70 · @5.75
2.97Expected goals
1.89Derry City xG
1.08Dundalk xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Derry City 1.9 – 1.1 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derry City to win✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Double chance
Derry City or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Derry City (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Dundalk +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.09
First team to score
Derry City to score first✗
60%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Derry City ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derry City / FT Derry City✗
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Derry City
No recent results on record.
Dundalk
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derry City and Dundalk.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Derry City have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dundalk 18%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Dundalk?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Derry City 1–1 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City vs Dundalk (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
