Value bet: Derry City to win @ 3.55 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultShelbourne to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Shelbourne vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Shelbourne welcome Derry City to Tolka Park for a Premier Division fixture on Friday 17 April (19:45 WAT). In the table, Shelbourne are 4th, among the top four, on 49 points after 36 matches; Derry City are 5th (upper half) with 48. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Shelbourne, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Shamrock Rovers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Derry City, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Dundalk, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Mar 2026) it ended Derry City 1–2 Shelbourne.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Shelbourne 1.5 xG, Derry City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Shelbourne 44%, draw 26%, Derry City 31%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Derry City to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Shelbourne44%fair 2.29 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.20
Derry City31%fair 3.27 · @3.55
2.74Expected goals
1.49Shelbourne xG
1.25Derry City xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Shelbourne 1.5 – 1.3 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
On our numbers Shelbourne have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Derry City 31%.
How many goals will there be in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Tolka Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
