Value bet: UCD to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUCD to win ✗50% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Finn Harps vs UCD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UCD travel to face Finn Harps on Friday 20 February in the First Division, with Finn Park the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Finn Harps are 10th, in the drop zone, on 28 points after 36 matches; UCD are 2nd (among the top four) with 56. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 1.2 xG, UCD 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 27%, draw 23%, UCD 50%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.72.
Price worth noting: UCD to win @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 1–1 UCD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps27%fair 3.71 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.20
UCD50%fair 2.01 · @2.20
3.02Expected goals
1.16Finn Harps xG
1.86UCD xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
1–36%
2–16%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.2 – 1.9 UCD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCD to win✗
50%
2.01
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.72
Draw no bet
UCD (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Finn Harps +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.88
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.11
First team to score
UCD to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
UCD ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCD / FT UCD✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Finn Harps – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Athlone Town
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
UCD – last 1
W
13 Feb
vs Kerry
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finn Harps and UCD.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Finn Harps vs UCD?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and UCD 50%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs UCD?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 UCD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps vs UCD (First Division) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kerry0