Value bet: Kerry to win @ 2.28 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKerry to win ✓47% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.51
Kerry vs Finn Harps: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Finn Harps travel to face Kerry on Friday 20 March in the First Division, with Mounthawk Park the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT.
Current form
Kerry, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wexford, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Finn Harps, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Treaty United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Finn Harps, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.6 for Kerry.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kerry 1.6 xG, Finn Harps 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kerry 47%, draw 25%, Finn Harps 27%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Kerry to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kerry 1–0 Finn Harps. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kerry47%fair 2.11 · @2.28
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.15
Finn Harps27%fair 3.67 · @3.15
2.56Expected goals
1.61Kerry xG
0.95Finn Harps xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Kerry 1.6 – 1.0 Finn Harps expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kerry to win✓
47%
2.11
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.83
Draw no bet
Kerry (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Finn Harps +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Kerry to score first✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kerry / FT Kerry✓
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.51
–
Recent results
Kerry – last 5
DDDLL
13 Mar
@ Wexford
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Treaty United
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Longford Town
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Athlone Town
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ UCD
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Finn Harps – last 5
DDDWL
13 Mar
vs Treaty United
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Wexford
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Cobh Ramblers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs UCD
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Athlone Town
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kerry and Finn Harps.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kerry vs Finn Harps?
On our numbers Kerry have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Finn Harps 27%.
How many goals will there be in Kerry vs Finn Harps?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kerry vs Finn Harps?
Our predicted score is Kerry 1–0 Finn Harps, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Kerry vs Finn Harps?
Kerry vs Finn Harps (First Division) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Mounthawk Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
