UCD v Finn Harps: numbers & prediction

UCD vs Finn Harps: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Friday 17 April: UCD v Finn Harps in the First Division, played at UCD Bowl. In the table, UCD are 2nd, among the top four, on 56 points after 36 matches; Finn Harps are 10th (in the drop zone) with 28. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

UCD, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kerry, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Finn Harps, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cobh Ramblers, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours UCD, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Finn Harps.

Head to head

When they last met (20 Feb 2026) it ended Finn Harps 2–1 UCD.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give UCD 2.0 xG, Finn Harps 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.

Markets worth a look

• 1X2 according to our numbers – UCD 57%, draw 22%, Finn Harps 22%.
• Lower-risk option: UCD or draw (78%) at 1.30.
• GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
• Price worth noting: UCD to win @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was UCD or draw (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCD 1–0 Finn Harps. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.