UCD 56%Draw 23%Longford Town 21%Expected goals 1.70 – 1.01
79%
Betarazi pick
UCD or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultUCD to win ✓56% · @1.78
Double chanceUCD or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
UCD vs Longford Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 1 May: UCD v Longford Town in the First Division, played at UCD Bowl. In the table, UCD are 2nd, among the top four, on 56 points after 36 matches; Longford Town are 5th (upper half) with 52.
Current form
UCD, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Treaty United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Longford Town, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cobh Ramblers, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 6. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours UCD, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Longford Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCD 1.7 xG, Longford Town 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCD 56%, draw 23%, Longford Town 21%.
Lower-risk option: UCD or draw (79%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was UCD or draw (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCD 1–1 Longford Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCD56%fair 1.78 · @1.78
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.50
Longford Town21%fair 4.77 · @4.45
2.70Expected goals
1.70UCD xG
1.01Longford Town xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: UCD 1.7 – 1.0 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCD to win✓
56%
1.78
1.78
Double chance
UCD or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
UCD (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Longford Town +1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
UCD to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCD / FT UCD✓
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
UCD – last 6
WWDDWW
24 Apr
@ Treaty United
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Finn Harps
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Kerry
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Wexford
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Athlone Town
2–0
W
27 Mar
vs Cobh Ramblers
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Longford Town – last 6
DLDLDD
17 Apr
@ Cobh Ramblers
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Athlone Town
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Treaty United
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Cork City
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ Kerry
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Bray Wanderers
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCD and Longford Town.
Our pick is UCD or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCD vs Longford Town?
On our numbers UCD have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Longford Town 21%.
How many goals will there be in UCD vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCD vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is UCD 1–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is UCD vs Longford Town?
UCD vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at UCD Bowl.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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