Value bet: Kerry to win @ 2.82 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKerry to win ✗41% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.45
Finn Harps vs Kerry: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Finn Harps welcome Kerry to Finn Park for a First Division fixture on Friday 8 May (19:45 WAT).
Current form
Finn Harps, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bray Wanderers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Kerry, last 5: WDDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cork City, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (20 Mar 2026) it ended Kerry 1–0 Finn Harps.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 1.0 xG, Kerry 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 33%, draw 27%, Kerry 41%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Kerry to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 1–1 Kerry. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps33%fair 3.06 · @2.52
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.15
Kerry41%fair 2.46 · @2.82
2.41Expected goals
1.05Finn Harps xG
1.36Kerry xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.0 – 1.4 Kerry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kerry 41%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Kerry?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 Kerry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Finn Harps vs Kerry (First Division) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
