Finn Harps 19%Draw 23%UCD 58%Expected goals 1.01 – 1.94
81%
Betarazi pick
UCD or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: UCD to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUCD to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceUCD or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Finn Harps vs UCD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 12 June: Finn Harps v UCD in the First Division, played at Finn Park. In the table, Finn Harps are 10th, in the drop zone, on 28 points after 36 matches; UCD are 2nd (among the top four) with 56. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Finn Harps, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Cork City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
UCD, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Athlone Town, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours UCD, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Finn Harps.
Head to head
When they last met (17 Apr 2026) it ended UCD 2–1 Finn Harps. The last 2 head-to-heads: Finn Harps 1 win, UCD 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 1.0 xG, UCD 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 19%, draw 23%, UCD 58%.
Lower-risk option: UCD or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: UCD to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was UCD or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 1–1 UCD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps19%fair 5.25 · @3.75
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.60
UCD58%fair 1.72 · @1.90
2.95Expected goals
1.01Finn Harps xG
1.94UCD xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
0–110%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.0 – 1.9 UCD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is UCD or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Finn Harps vs UCD?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and UCD 58%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs UCD?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 UCD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps vs UCD (First Division) kicks off on Friday 12 June 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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