Finn Harps 15%Draw 24%Longford Town 61%Expected goals 0.88 – 1.93
85%
Betarazi pick
Longford Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Longford Town to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLongford Town to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceLongford Town or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Finn Harps vs Longford Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 18 September: Finn Harps v Longford Town in the First Division, played at Finn Park. In the table, Finn Harps are 10th, in the drop zone, on 28 points after 36 matches; Longford Town are 5th (upper half) with 52. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Finn Harps, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Wexford, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 3.3 conceded per game.
Longford Town, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Treaty United, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Aug 2026) it ended Longford Town 5–0 Finn Harps. The last 2 head-to-heads: Finn Harps 0 wins, Longford Town 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 0.9 xG, Longford Town 1.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 15%, draw 24%, Longford Town 61%.
Lower-risk option: Longford Town or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Longford Town to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Longford Town or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 0–1 Longford Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps15%fair 6.53 · @3.70
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.30
Longford Town61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
2.81Expected goals
0.88Finn Harps xG
1.93Longford Town xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 0.9 – 1.9 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our pick is Longford Town or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Longford Town 61%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 0–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kerry0