Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.38
Independiente vs San Lorenzo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
San Lorenzo travel to face Independiente on Sunday 13 September in the Liga Profesional Argentina – the ball rolls at 23:15 WAT. In the table, Independiente are 13th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; San Lorenzo are 18th (lower half) with 41.
Current form
Independiente, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Central Cordoba de Santiago, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
San Lorenzo, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Talleres Cordoba, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente 1.2 xG, San Lorenzo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente 47%, draw 25%, San Lorenzo 28%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente 1–0 San Lorenzo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @2.80
San Lorenzo28%fair 3.59 · @4.00
2.04Expected goals
1.21Independiente xG
0.83San Lorenzo xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.2 – 0.8 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✗
47%
2.13
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.62
Draw no bet
Independiente (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
San Lorenzo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Independiente to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.38
–
Recent results
Independiente – last 6
WLDWLL
6 Sep
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Gimnasia M.
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Independ. Rivadavia
0–0
D
17 Aug
@ Lanus
3–1
W
12 Aug
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs Platense
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
WLDWLL
5 Sep
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Union Santa Fe
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Huracan
0–2
L
4 Aug
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Independiente have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Lorenzo 28%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Independiente vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sarmiento Junin1
Belgrano Cordoba1
Tigre0
Rosario Central1
Argentinos JRS1
Gimnasia L.P.1