América W vs Toluca W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Toluca W travel to face América W on Tuesday 17 March in the Liga MX Femenil, with Estadio Azteca the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, América W are 1st, leading the league, on 37 points after 14 matches; Toluca W are 6th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
América W, last 3: WLD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over León W, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Toluca W, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Pumas UNAM W, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Toluca W, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for América W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give América W 3.1 xG, Toluca W 1.0 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – América W 77%, draw 15%, Toluca W 9%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was América W to win (77%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: América W 3–1 Toluca W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
América W77%fair 1.31 · @1.27
Draw15%fair 6.68 · @5.50
Toluca W9%fair 11.73 · @9.80
4.14Expected goals
3.10América W xG
1.04Toluca W xG
64%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–18%
2–18%
3–08%
2–08%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: América W 3.1 – 1.0 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
América W
Toluca W
Attack vs Liga MX Femenil average
+108%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-37%
-3%
Our expected goals here
3.76
1.22
Our own ratings from every Liga MX Femenil result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
América W to win✓
77%
1.31
1.27
Double chance
América W or draw✓
91%
1.09
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.62
Draw no bet
América W (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
América W -1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.36
First team to score
América W to score first✓
74%
1.36
–
Half-time result
América W ahead at half-time✗
60%
1.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT América W / FT América W✗
55%
1.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.16
–
Recent results
América W – last 3
WLD
14 Mar
vs León W
4–2
W
11 Mar
@ Guadalajara W
2–3
L
16 Feb
vs Monterrey W
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 3
WWD
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between América W and Toluca W.
Our pick is América W to win with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win América W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers América W have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Toluca W 9%.
How many goals will there be in América W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for América W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is América W 3–1 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is América W vs Toluca W?
América W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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