Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.60
New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Thursday 21 May: New Mexico United v Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship, played at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. In the table, New Mexico United are 1st, leading the league, on 52 points after 30 matches; Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st (leading the league) with 61.
Current form
New Mexico United, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Colorado Springs, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Miami FC, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tampa Bay Rowdies, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for New Mexico United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give New Mexico United 1.4 xG, Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – New Mexico United 35%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 40%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: New Mexico United to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: New Mexico United 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
New Mexico United35%fair 2.83 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.55
Tampa Bay Rowdies40%fair 2.51 · @2.00
2.64Expected goals
1.36New Mexico United xG
1.28Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.4 – 1.3 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
New Mexico United
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
+12%
Goals conceded vs average
-22%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.39
1.06
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✓
40%
2.51
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.53
Draw no bet
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Tampa Bay Rowdies +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
New Mexico United to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.60
–
Recent results
New Mexico United – last 6
LWDWLW
17 May
@ Colorado Springs
0–4
L
10 May
vs Las Vegas Lights
3–1
W
7 May
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs Alta
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Phoenix Rising
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WDWWDW
17 May
@ Miami FC
4–1
W
10 May
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
3 May
vs Indy Eleven
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
12 Apr
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Sporting JAX
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 40%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
