Value bet: Charlotte Independence to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCharlotte Independence to win ✓45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Naples vs Charlotte Independence: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Thursday 4 June: Naples v Charlotte Independence in the USL League One, played at Paradise Coast Sports Complex. In the table, Naples are 8th, upper half, on 46 points after 32 matches; Charlotte Independence are 1st (leading the league) with 66. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Naples, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Union Omaha, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Charlotte Independence, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Chattanooga Red Wolves, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Charlotte Independence, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Naples.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naples 1.3 xG, Charlotte Independence 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naples 32%, draw 23%, Charlotte Independence 45%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Charlotte Independence to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naples 1–1 Charlotte Independence. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naples32%fair 3.16 · @2.55
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.35
Charlotte Independence45%fair 2.23 · @2.40
2.99Expected goals
1.31Naples xG
1.68Charlotte Independence xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Naples 1.3 – 1.7 Charlotte Independence expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Charlotte Independence to win✓
45%
2.23
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.67
Draw no bet
Charlotte Independence (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Naples +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Charlotte Independence to score first✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Charlotte Independence / FT Charlotte Independence✓
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Naples – last 6
LWLLLL
31 May
@ Union Omaha
1–2
L
24 May
vs Westchester SC
1–0
W
14 May
@ Boise
0–2
L
3 May
vs One Knoxville
0–3
L
30 Apr
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs Orlando City SC
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Charlotte Independence – last 6
WWWWDL
31 May
@ Chattanooga Red Wolves
3–2
W
24 May
vs Forward Madison
3–1
W
10 May
@ Corpus Christi
3–1
W
7 May
vs Boise
1–0
W
3 May
@ Fort Wayne
2–2
D
19 Apr
@ One Knoxville
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naples and Charlotte Independence.
What is the prediction for Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
On our numbers Naples have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Charlotte Independence 45%.
How many goals will there be in Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Our predicted score is Naples 1–1 Charlotte Independence, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Naples vs Charlotte Independence (USL League One) kicks off on Thursday 4 June 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
