Value bet: Sarasota Paradise to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSarasota Paradise to win ✓41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sarasota Paradise travel to face Portland Hearts of Pine on Saturday 26 September in the USL League One, with Fitzpatrick Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Portland Hearts of Pine are 14th, lower half, on 34 points after 32 matches; Sarasota Paradise are 11th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Portland Hearts of Pine, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Chattanooga Red Wolves, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Sarasota Paradise, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Greenville Triumph, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Sarasota Paradise, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Portland Hearts of Pine.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Mar 2026) it ended Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Portland Hearts of Pine.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Portland Hearts of Pine 1.4 xG, Sarasota Paradise 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 54% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Portland Hearts of Pine 38%, draw 21%, Sarasota Paradise 41%.
Price worth noting: Sarasota Paradise to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Sarasota Paradise. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Portland Hearts of Pine38%fair 2.65 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.50
Sarasota Paradise41%fair 2.42 · @2.60
2.95Expected goals
1.43Portland Hearts of Pine xG
1.52Sarasota Paradise xG
54%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Portland Hearts of Pine 1.4 – 1.5 Sarasota Paradise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
On our numbers Portland Hearts of Pine have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sarasota Paradise 41%.
How many goals will there be in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our predicted score is Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Sarasota Paradise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise (USL League One) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Fitzpatrick Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
