Monarcas vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monarcas welcome Tepatitlán to Estadio Morelos for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 15 March (02:00 WAT). In the table, Monarcas are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Monarcas, last 4: LWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atlante FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Tepatitlán, last 4: WLWD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Mineros de Zacatecas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Monarcas, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Tepatitlán.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monarcas 2.0 xG, Tepatitlán 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monarcas 52%, draw 22%, Tepatitlán 26%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monarcas to win (52%, odds 2.40 – longer than our fair 1.91, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monarcas 2–0 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monarcas52%fair 1.91 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.10
Tepatitlán26%fair 3.86 · @2.70
2.96Expected goals
2.00Monarcas xG
0.95Tepatitlán xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.0 – 1.0 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monarcas
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-0%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+47%
Our expected goals here
2.72
0.72
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✓
52%
1.91
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Draw no bet
Monarcas (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Monarcas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Monarcas to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Monarcas ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Monarcas – last 4
LWWW
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 4
WLWD
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for Monarcas vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Monarcas to win with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.40.
Who will win Monarcas vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tepatitlán 26%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–0 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Tepatitlán?
Monarcas vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
