Tepatitlán 47%Draw 21%Venados FC 32%Expected goals 1.57 – 1.66
62%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
Picks by market
ResultTepatitlán to win ✓47% · @1.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.38
Tepatitlán vs Venados FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Saturday 21 March: Tepatitlán v Venados FC in the Liga De Expansión MX. In the table, Tepatitlán are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 15 matches; Venados FC are 6th (upper half) with 25. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tepatitlán, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Monarcas, away. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Venados FC, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Correcaminos Uat, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Tepatitlán, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.0 for Venados FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tepatitlán 1.6 xG, Venados FC 1.7 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tepatitlán 47%, draw 21%, Venados FC 32%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tepatitlán 1–1 Venados FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tepatitlán47%fair 2.12 · @1.58
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @4.20
Venados FC32%fair 3.14 · @5.00
3.23Expected goals
1.57Tepatitlán xG
1.66Venados FC xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.6 – 1.7 Venados FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tepatitlán
Venados FC
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-30%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.31
2.15
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tepatitlán to win✓
47%
2.12
1.58
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.60
1.60
Draw no bet
Tepatitlán (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Tepatitlán +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
Venados FC to score first✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venados FC / FT Venados FC✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.38
–
Recent results
Tepatitlán – last 5
LWLWD
15 Mar
@ Monarcas
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
1.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Venados FC – last 3
LLL
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Monarcas
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tepatitlán and Venados FC.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs Venados FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Venados FC?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Venados FC 32%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs Venados FC?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs Venados FC?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 1–1 Venados FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs Venados FC?
Tepatitlán vs Venados FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
