CA La Paz 66%Draw 21%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13%Expected goals 2.37 – 0.87
80%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 1.61 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✓66% · @1.61
Double chanceCA La Paz or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CA La Paz welcome Alebrijes de Oaxaca to Estadio Guaycura for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Saturday 21 March (04:00 WAT). In the table, CA La Paz are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22.
Current form
CA La Paz, last 4: DWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cancún, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Tapatío, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.4 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CA La Paz 2.4 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.9 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CA La Paz 66%, draw 21%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13%.
Lower-risk option: CA La Paz or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @1.61 – the bookmaker implies 62%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: CA La Paz 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CA La Paz66%fair 1.51 · @1.61
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @4.00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca13%fair 7.73 · @5.10
3.24Expected goals
2.37CA La Paz xG
0.87Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
3–09%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 2.4 – 0.9 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
CA La Paz
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+32%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+10%
Our expected goals here
2.68
0.81
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✓
66%
1.51
1.61 ▲
Double chance
CA La Paz or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.70
Draw no bet
CA La Paz (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
CA La Paz -1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.15
First team to score
CA La Paz to score first✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
CA La Paz ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
CA La Paz – last 4
DWWL
15 Mar
@ Cancún
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
2–0
W
5 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
3–0
W
1 Mar
@ Monarcas
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 5
WLWLD
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
