Value bet: Cancún to win @ 2.58 – our chance 54% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCancún to win ✗54% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Cancún vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cancún welcome Tepatitlán for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 29 March (02:00 WAT). In the table, Cancún are 5th, upper half, on 25 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cancún, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Irapuato, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Tepatitlán, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Venados FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cancún 2.1 xG, Tepatitlán 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cancún 54%, draw 20%, Tepatitlán 26%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Cancún to win @2.58 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cancún 2–0 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cancún54%fair 1.84 · @2.58
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.35
Tepatitlán26%fair 3.92 · @2.58
2.98Expected goals
2.07Cancún xG
0.92Tepatitlán xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cancún 2.1 – 0.9 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+11%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
+47%
Our expected goals here
3.02
0.69
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cancún to win✗
54%
1.84
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.67
Draw no bet
Cancún (draw no bet)
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Cancún -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.11
First team to score
Cancún to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Cancún ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cancún / FT Cancún✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Cancún – last 5
DDWLW
22 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Tapatío
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 6
WLWLWD
21 Mar
vs Venados FC
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monarcas
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cancún and Tepatitlán.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cancún vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Cancún have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tepatitlán 26%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cancún vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Cancún 2–0 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Cancún vs Tepatitlán?
Cancún vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato0