CA La Paz 56%Draw 17%Tepatitlán 27%Expected goals 2.41 – 1.07
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 2.50 – our chance 56% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✗56% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tepatitlán travel to face CA La Paz on Saturday 11 April in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Guaycura the venue – the ball rolls at 04:00 WAT. In the table, CA La Paz are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
CA La Paz, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Irapuato, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tepatitlán, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Alebrijes de Oaxaca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CA La Paz 2.4 xG, Tepatitlán 1.1 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CA La Paz 56%, draw 17%, Tepatitlán 27%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: CA La Paz 2–1 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CA La Paz56%fair 1.80 · @2.50
Draw17%fair 5.77 · @3.75
Tepatitlán27%fair 3.69 · @2.50
3.48Expected goals
2.41CA La Paz xG
1.07Tepatitlán xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 2.4 – 1.1 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
CA La Paz
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+32%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+47%
Our expected goals here
3.59
0.73
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✗
56%
1.80
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.48
Draw no bet
CA La Paz (draw no bet)
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
CA La Paz -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.20
First team to score
CA La Paz to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
CA La Paz ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✗
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
CA La Paz – last 6
LDWDWW
4 Apr
@ Irapuato
1–3
L
28 Mar
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Cancún
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
2–0
W
5 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 6
WDWLWL
4 Apr
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Cancún
2–2
D
21 Mar
vs Venados FC
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monarcas
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Tepatitlán 27%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán?
CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
