Leones Negros UDG v Cancún Prediction & Expected Goals (19 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLeones Negros UDG to win47% · @2.12

Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.70

GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.54

Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Cancún travel to face Leones Negros UDG on Sunday 19 April in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Jalisco the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Cancún are 5th (upper half) with 25.

Current form

Leones Negros UDG, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Venados FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Cancún, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atlante FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Momentum favours Cancún, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Leones Negros UDG.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 1.6 xG, Cancún 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 61%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 47%, draw 24%, Cancún 29%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Cancún. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Leones Negros UDG47%fair 2.12 · @2.12

Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.45

Cancún29%fair 3.48 · @3.25

2.79Expected goals

1.64Leones Negros UDG xG

1.15Cancún xG

61%Both score

51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

2–19%

2–08%

0–17%

1–27%

From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.6 – 1.2 Cancún expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Leones Negros UDG	Cancún
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average	+21%	+11%
Goals conceded vs average	-14%	-20%
Our expected goals here	1.81	1.17

Leones Negros UDG

Cancún

Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average

+21%

+11%

Goals conceded vs average

-14%

-20%

Our expected goals here

1.81

1.17

Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Leones Negros UDG to win	47%	2.12	2.12
Double chance	Either team to win	76%	1.32	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	61%	1.63	1.70
Draw no bet	Leones Negros UDG (draw no bet)	62%	1.61	–
Asian handicap	Cancún +1 (Asian handicap)	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33	1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	70%	1.42	1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	85%	1.18	1.11
First team to score	Leones Negros UDG to score first	55%	1.82	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	41%	2.44	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG	29%	3.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	9%	10.54	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Leones Negros UDG to win

47%

2.12

Double chance

Either team to win

76%

1.32

1.25

Both teams to score

Both teams to score

61%

1.63

1.70

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw no bet)

62%

1.61

–

Asian handicap

Cancún +1 (Asian handicap)

67%

1.50

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals

75%

1.33

1.28

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

51%

1.96

1.90

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals

70%

1.42

1.33

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals

85%

1.18

1.11

First team to score

Leones Negros UDG to score first

55%

1.82

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time

41%

2.44

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG

29%

3.40

–

Correct score

Correct score 2–1

10.54

–

Recent results

Head to head

Liga De Expansión MX table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	15	9	3	3	+18	30
2	Leones Negros UDG	15	9	3	3	+14	30
3	Monarcas	15	8	2	5	+7	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	+12	25
5	Cancún	15	7	4	4	+10	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	+6	25
7	Durango	15	7	3	5	+6	24
8	Tlaxcala	15	6	4	5	+2	22
9	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	-10	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	0	18
11	Tapatío	15	5	3	7	-3	18
12	Correcaminos Uat	15	4	5	6	-3	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	-9	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	15	4	3	8	-10	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	-7	14
16	Tepatitlán	15	2	1	12	-33	7

Team

Pts

+18

+14

+12

+10

-10

-3

-3

-9

-10

-7

-33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?

On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cancún 29%.

How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?

Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Cancún, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?

Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

12 Apr	@ Venados FC	1–2	L
5 Apr	vs Monarcas	2–0	W
28 Mar	@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1–1	D
15 Mar	@ Dorados	1–1	D
5 Mar	@ CA La Paz	0–3	L
1 Mar	vs Atlante FC	1–1	D

12 Apr	vs Atlante FC	2–1	W
4 Apr	@ Correcaminos Uat	3–1	W
29 Mar	vs Tepatitlán	2–2	D
22 Mar	@ Irapuato	2–2	D
15 Mar	vs CA La Paz	1–1	D
7 Mar	@ Tapatío	2–1	W

Leones Negros UDG v Cancún: numbers & prediction