FC Lugano 62%Draw 22%Lausanne 15%Expected goals 2.25 – 0.99
85%
Betarazi pick
FC Lugano or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FC Lugano to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFC Lugano to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceFC Lugano or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.19
FC Lugano vs Lausanne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:30 WAT, Sunday 22 February: FC Lugano v Lausanne in the Super League, played at Stadio di Cornaredo. In the table, FC Lugano are 1st, leading the league, on 34 points after 13 matches; Lausanne are 12th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Lugano 2.3 xG, Lausanne 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Lugano 62%, draw 22%, Lausanne 15%.
Lower-risk option: FC Lugano or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: FC Lugano to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FC Lugano or draw (85%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Lugano 2–0 Lausanne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Lugano62%fair 1.60 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.75
Lausanne15%fair 6.46 · @4.40
3.24Expected goals
2.25FC Lugano xG
0.99Lausanne xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Lugano 2.3 – 1.0 Lausanne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Lugano to win✓
62%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Double chance
FC Lugano or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Draw no bet
FC Lugano (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
FC Lugano -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
FC Lugano to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
FC Lugano ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Lugano / FT FC Lugano✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
FC Lugano – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ FC Basel 1893
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lausanne – last 2
DD
19 Feb
@ Sigma Olomouc
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Servette FC
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Lugano and Lausanne.
Our pick is FC Lugano or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
On our numbers FC Lugano have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lausanne 15%.
How many goals will there be in FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
Our predicted score is FC Lugano 2–0 Lausanne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
FC Lugano vs Lausanne (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio di Cornaredo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
