Value bet: Aalesund to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLillestrom to win ✓45% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.44
Aalesund vs Lillestrom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 15 March: Aalesund v Lillestrom in the Eliteserien, played at Color Line Stadion. In the table, Aalesund are 15th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 26 matches; Lillestrom are 4th (among the top four) with 45. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lillestrom, last 4: DLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tromso, away. 3.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aalesund 1.8 xG, Lillestrom 1.8 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aalesund 32%, draw 22%, Lillestrom 45%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Aalesund to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aalesund 1–1 Lillestrom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aalesund32%fair 3.08 · @3.30
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.75
Lillestrom45%fair 2.22 · @1.91
3.61Expected goals
1.79Aalesund xG
1.82Lillestrom xG
68%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: Aalesund 1.8 – 1.8 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win✓
45%
2.22
1.91
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Draw no bet
Lillestrom (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Aalesund +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
First team to score
Lillestrom to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.44
–
Recent results
Aalesund – last 2
WL
9 Mar
@ Egersund
3–2
W
22 Feb
vs Fredrikstad
2–3
L
2.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 4
DLWD
27 Feb
@ Tromso
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Kongsvinger
2–4
L
17 Feb
vs Haugesund
7–1
W
13 Feb
vs Stromsgodset
4–4
D
3.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aalesund and Lillestrom.
What is the prediction for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Aalesund have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lillestrom 45%.
How many goals will there be in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Aalesund 1–1 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Color Line Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
