Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTromso to win ✓54% · @1.75
Double chanceTromso or draw ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Tromso vs Fredrikstad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 March the Eliteserien brings Tromso against Fredrikstad at Alfheim. Kick-off: 19:15 WAT. In the table, Tromso are 6th, upper half, on 40 points after 26 matches; Fredrikstad are 12th (lower half) with 30.
Current form
Tromso, last 3: DDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lillestrom, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Fredrikstad, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sarpsborg 08 FF, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Fredrikstad, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Tromso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tromso 1.8 xG, Fredrikstad 1.3 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tromso 54%, draw 23%, Fredrikstad 23%.
Lower-risk option: Tromso or draw (77%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tromso or draw (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tromso 1–1 Fredrikstad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tromso54%fair 1.87 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.60
Fredrikstad23%fair 4.31 · @4.00
3.11Expected goals
1.84Tromso xG
1.26Fredrikstad xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–08%
1–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tromso 1.8 – 1.3 Fredrikstad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tromso to win✓
54%
1.87
1.75
Double chance
Tromso or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Tromso (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Fredrikstad +1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Tromso to score first✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Tromso ahead at half-time✓
39%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tromso / FT Tromso✓
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Tromso – last 3
DDW
27 Feb
vs Lillestrom
0–0
D
20 Feb
vs Viking
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Bryne
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Fredrikstad – last 3
WWD
8 Mar
vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Aalesund
3–2
W
17 Feb
vs KFUM Oslo
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tromso and Fredrikstad.
Our pick is Tromso or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
On our numbers Tromso have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fredrikstad 23%.
How many goals will there be in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our predicted score is Tromso 1–1 Fredrikstad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Alfheim.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
