Value bet: Almirante Brown to win @ 3.85 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTristan Suarez to win ✓46% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.25
Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 16 August the Primera Nacional brings Tristan Suarez against Almirante Brown at Estadio 20 de Octubre. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Tristan Suarez are 1st, leading the league, on 64 points after 36 matches; Almirante Brown are 6th (upper half) with 51. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tristan Suarez, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gimnasia Jujuy, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Almirante Brown, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ciudad de Bolívar, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tristan Suarez 1.0 xG, Almirante Brown 0.7 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 75% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tristan Suarez 46%, draw 26%, Almirante Brown 28%.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Almirante Brown to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tristan Suarez 0–0 Almirante Brown. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tristan Suarez46%fair 2.20 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @2.70
Almirante Brown28%fair 3.54 · @3.85
1.62Expected goals
0.96Tristan Suarez xG
0.66Almirante Brown xG
43%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–020%
1–019%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.0 – 0.7 Almirante Brown expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tristan Suarez to win✓
46%
2.20
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.40
Draw no bet
Tristan Suarez (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Almirante Brown +1 (Asian handicap)✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.93
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.03
–
First team to score
Tristan Suarez to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.25
–
Recent results
Tristan Suarez – last 6
WWWWLD
10 Aug
@ Gimnasia Jujuy
2–0
W
3 Aug
@ Club Atlético Güemes
3–1
W
25 Jul
vs Chacarita Juniors
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs Nueva Chicago
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Temperley
0–1
L
21 Jun
@ Chacarita Juniors
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Almirante Brown – last 6
WWDDDW
8 Aug
vs Ciudad de Bolívar
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Racing Cordoba
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Atletico Mitre
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs CA Estudiantes
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ All Boys
1–1
D
4 Jul
vs Los Andes
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tristan Suarez and Almirante Brown.
What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Almirante Brown 28%.
How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Our predicted score is Tristan Suarez 0–0 Almirante Brown, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gimnasia Jujuy1
San Martin S.J.0
San Martin Tucuman2
Temperley3